Ida and Katrina and the abandonment of the coasts

I've always been addicted to watch news coverage on hurricanes. There's probably some deep-seated psychological reason for that and Freudians are free to comment. Maybe it's because I love the coastal regions of the country, or it's the sheer raw power these storms have, or the sense foreboding doom I've had when having to evacuate ahead of them before. Maybe it's just the entertainment value of people on the Weather Channel wearing snazzy jackets and trying not to be knocked down. On the not-so-fun back side of that is seeing the misery and damage inflicted and collecting supplies and donations to send down to people who have been affected by them. My favorite moment was Geraldo Rivera being bowled over while covering Hurricane Ike, and also the saddest moment seeing the Balinese Room destroyed.

The contrast between the two hurricanes is interesting. Katrina dumped more rain, while Ida had significantly higher wind speeds. On a preliminary level, it seems like global warming may have made Ida a more intense storm. That intensity has basically destroyed the power grid through much of the impact area. Rain is easier to mitigate and it looks like the changes made in the years since Katrina helped prevent New Orleans from flooding. Wind is harder to protect against, though. I'm not aware of any way to keep the power infrastructure from suffering catastrophic damage that tornadoes can inflict. Ida's max wind speeds were the equivalent of an F4 tornado and sustained speeds were the equivalent of an F3 tornado.

Living in coastal areas is basically a form of Russian Roulette these days. The ocean is beautiful, no doubt about it, and even beach life for a week or two during vacation is pretty epic. New Orleans, for its faults, is still an iconic city with a rich culture as are places like Miami, Charleston, and Savannah. As the storm seasons increase intensity, and the ice caps continue to melt, they are going to become increasingly uninhabitable. How many times can you rebuild and how long will people be able to afford insurance as damage increases in intensity, scope, and frequency?

Mass migration from coastal areas is probably inevitable as people simply pick up and leave because like is no longer sustainable there. They will leave behind mortgages, businesses, tax bases, infrastructure, and so on. NOAA has measured the amount of wealth and population in "at-risk" coastal areas. The American coasts have the third largest economic base in the world. Naval bases on coasts. The fishing industry is on coasts. Shipping, manufacturing, etc. While some of these will persist for national security or economic reasons, even losing half of the wealth generation from coastal areas would have a huge impact on the wealth of the nation and perhaps the world as a whole. Not only will America be affected, but all other nations as well.

In the span of human history, environmental changes have been the main driver for migration. We want to think that we're immune to that sort of thing, but living in inhospitable areas has mainly been enabled by technology. This technology itself has been based mostly on the use of energy. As energy costs rise, the cost of living in these areas rise, as well as the impact of global warming on making these costs even higher. At some point, they will not be tenable places to live anymore for this reason as well. Migration from the risk of living on the coasts will happen as well, or the overshoot of population dependent on coastal areas that are no longer safely usable will put a severe strain on our economic system, natural resources, etc.

As it's said, "something which cannot go on forever, won't." Coastal living is one of those things, and the impact which it will have cannot be comprehended.