Trust is a one-shot deal

Biden should realize that nobody's buying what he's selling. When even CNN is dumping all over a Democratic politician, that politician should realize they have a real problem on their hands. Of course, it's even worse for Biden, as he ran on a platform of restoring trust that had been lost during Trump's presidency, of experience, and bringing normalcy back to the White House. The contradictions of the last few days and an unwillingness to speak consistently on Afghanistan really isn't helping him. It's not quite as tone-deaf as Bush the Lesser's skit of looking for WMDs under his desk, but it's getting there.

Government as an institution, particularly in a democratic nation, requires an implicit recognition of the social contract by both sides. For the most part, it boils down to "don't let us starve and don't shoot us for random reasons and we'll put up with being oppressed and build your palaces." Even earthly paradises like North Korea mostly manage to hold up their end of the bargain, at least if you bow low enough in the direction of Fearless Leader. Once that trust is gone, government rapidly begins to lose effectiveness as people stop paying taxes, do their business through black markets, become highly local in their governments and so on.

There is the age-old question of what the ideal form of government is. The American Revolution got rid of the British monarchy as a governing force, but slavery persisted for another eighty years before it was finally finished as an institution, and it was another century or so before African-Americans received equality under the law (if not always in practice). Ideal for some, but not for all. Would life have been better still under Britain? It's hard to say, but it is an excellent example of what happens when people lose trust in their government, which the colonists did after being handed the bill for the Seven Years War.

Losing trust in government means that a nation can't respond readily to crises as they come up. In America, one half of the country doesn't trust the politicians voted in by the other half. Global warming is clearly here, yet Republicans by and large don't trust what they're being told on it, because it comes from Democratic politicians. Same with covid, vaccinations, etc. The lack of trust means that solutions won't be supported wholly, and government largely functions via consent of the governed. Ask people to cut back on carbon emissions when they don't trust you, and they'll probably burn gasoline in the backyard just to spite you.

Trust is very hard to win back, too. It's a little like "What have you done for me lately?" It doesn't help that most politicians feel like the best way to keep winning elections is to blame someone else. I'm not sure there was anyone that Trump didn't blame for his mistakes, although it didn't help him win last year (except in the minds of people who couldn't pick apart his claims of more people voting for him than they did in 2016). In fact, I'm not sure it's possible to be trusted again in the public arena. Whether or not Nixon would have survived Watergate, his career as a politician was over. "Tricky Dick" is a really tough label to escape.

Also, as resources get tight, prices go up, and people find themselves struggling, trust is even rarer. This leads to a feedback cycle where solutions are more difficult to implement and conditions worsen because there is no buy-in for solutions. We haven't quite begun to see the fallout from the massive stimulus spending, but it is going to arrive at some point when the dollar takes a dive. How many people are going to be on board with anything at that point, when they believe they've been betrayed by those who control fiscal policy?

Going back to Afghanistan, it remains to be seen what will happen there. If things turn out badly (e.g. American citizens having their heads cut off or least held hostage), no one is going to trust foreign policy actions going forward. From there, the inability of the American government to engage other nations with the support of the people, will begin to be undone. While some might cheer the decline of America, consider that America is a major piece in the fabric of the modern world. If it sinks, it will take quite a lot with it.