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The collapse of complex systems

Everyone has some sort of idea of collapse in their heads, at least if they have given it any thought at all. Mad Max, Blade Runner, whatever. Back in the 1800s, people were ruminating over collapse with the idea of the world having too many people and not enough resources. Anyone familiar with the "doomer" movement can probably give a workable explanation of Jevon's Paradox, for example, or Malthusianism. Now, people worry with good reason about global warming and what effects it is going to have on our lives and our planet. At the root of this is the maxim of "something that can't go on forever, won't." A great deal of time and effort is spent convincing the American people otherwise - after all, no one is going to win an election or keep customers by pointing out that our current civilization is unsustainable in its present form. Systems essentially collapse from two causes, with a caveat - either something the system depends on is no longer available...

Joe Rogan has covid, too

Joe Rogan is now sick with covid, joining a list of higher-profile opponents of covid vaccinations and other mitigation efforts. Lately, it seems like people who oppose masking and vaxxing are now looking up at the sky through six feet of dirt. While there's probably a delicious conspiracy theory in there, the reality more likely is that these folks mingle (even if not single) and don't really take the whole thing seriously. It's a little bit like crying wolf in reverse - say that there's no problem, then look confused when the wolf eats you. It just is a continuation of the recent American tendency to have a knee-jerk reaction to anything that comes out of the mouth of someone you're supposed to dislike. Let's face it - the two major political poles in this nation have already seceded from each other. While it's not a physical or formal secession, it's definitely a mental one. There is no accepting the "wrong" opinion and remaining within your...

East coast flooding

The tragic and unprecedented devastation and loss of life from the remnants of Ida skirting over the northeast has been sobering to watch. Basements with water pouring in, cars up to the doors in flooded streets, boats rescuing people from second floors in Pennsylvania. The images are start and dramatic, with people struggling to survive in the middle of a disaster, but the news will go on after this and not dive into the underlying issues. Simply put, things like this should not be happening in a healthy, modern civilization, with is eyes on the future. Too bad we're anything but that anymore. From the "peak" perspective, the region has been suffering shortfalls for some time now. The Report Card for America's Infrastructure rates New York at a C-. The wear and tear on cars from driving on city streets is around $650 a year. There are concerns about drinking water safety, and now this. Hurricane Sandy dumped tons of rain on New York back in 2012 and flooded it exten...

Voting as warfare

I detest when people like high school teachers and random lecturers try to torture meaning out of pop or rock music that doesn't exist. U2's "I still haven't found what I'm looking for" seems to be a particular magnet for that kind of mental abuse. Corrosion of Conformity's "Voting with a bullet" is probably used in some social studies classes somewhere, and the title of the song reminded me of some lectures I've heard in the past. The main thesis in these lectures was that the vote is a legal surrogate for physical violence. If you stop and think about it, voting is essentially saying that people want to adopt a majority position, with the implication of forcing the minority to adopt the position of the majority. They don't want to play ball? Prison, exile, or death. The (in)famous joke about democracy is that it's two wolves and a sheep arguing what to have for dinner. Of course, take it a step farther, and you have two wolves argui...

Ida and Katrina and the abandonment of the coasts

I've always been addicted to watch news coverage on hurricanes. There's probably some deep-seated psychological reason for that and Freudians are free to comment. Maybe it's because I love the coastal regions of the country, or it's the sheer raw power these storms have, or the sense foreboding doom I've had when having to evacuate ahead of them before. Maybe it's just the entertainment value of people on the Weather Channel wearing snazzy jackets and trying not to be knocked down. On the not-so-fun back side of that is seeing the misery and damage inflicted and collecting supplies and donations to send down to people who have been affected by them. My favorite moment was Geraldo Rivera being bowled over while covering Hurricane Ike, and also the saddest moment seeing the Balinese Room destroyed. The contrast between the two hurricanes is interesting. Katrina dumped more rain, while Ida had significantly higher wind speeds. On a preliminary level, it seems like ...

Sleepy Joe's long slide

I'm not really sure what's been going on with Biden lately, but I don't see a single bit of the spark he used to have years ago. Go back to the Obama years and Joe was pretty much a firebrand, whatever you thought of his politics. I never saw the appeal to him as a candidate or politician, as he has essentially been nothing but a careerist schmoozer most of his life, not that it makes him any different from anyone else in Washington who has been around for decades. Knowledge of how to govern and good civics really has nothing to do with pressing the flesh and winning votes. Sometimes they overlap, but not often. I get the desire to so badly see Trump booted from office that running the person with name recognition and deep pockets and connections, whatever his weaknesses, seemed like the most desirable move. I don't have a lot to say about Trump as a president, because I don't think there was a lot there. Lots of bluster and bragging, not a lot to back it up, and a ...

At the mercy of nature

For all the bluster of how mankind has conquered nature and tamed the earth, the natural world always likes to call mankind's bluff. For one, we haven't exactly figured out how to stop hurricanes (though I hear dropping a nuclear bomb into the eye of a hurricane was proposed by Trump...why not have a radioactive hurricane instead of just a normal one?). Every time one scoots across the Gulf, oil production is impacted and it makes life pretty miserable for people. Then there's the forest fires. While we don't have a record going this year, they're always dangerous and terrifying. Then there's earthquakes, tsunamis, tornadoes, wild animals, plagues of locusts, and who knows what kinds of disease just lurking in a swamp or jungle someplace. Again, we're pretty much unable to stop all of these things and can only mitigate them. Civilization has largely figured out what to do with all of these, even if they can't be stopped. The problem arises when civilizat...